Comprehensive Analysis of Market Conditions in the Foreign Exchange Market: Fluctuation Scaling and Variance-Covariance Matrix

We investigate quotation and transaction activities in the foreign exchange market for every week during the period of June 2007 to December 2010. A scaling relationship between the mean values of number of quotations (or number of transactions) for various currency pairs and the corresponding standard deviations holds for a majority of the weeks. However, the scaling breaks in some time intervals, which is related to the emergence of market shocks. There is a monotonous relationship between values of scaling indices and global averages of currency pair cross-correlations when both quantities are observed for various window lengths $\Delta t$.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figure

Rectal Transmission of Transmitted/Founder HIV-1 Is Efficiently Prevented by Topical 1% Tenofovir in BLT Humanized Mice

Rectal microbicides are being developed to prevent new HIV infections in both men and women. We focused our in vivo preclinical efficacy study on rectally-applied tenofovir. BLT humanized mice (n = 43) were rectally inoculated with either the primary isolate HIV-1(JRCSF) or the MSM-derived transmitted/founder (T/F) virus HIV-1(THRO) within 30 minutes following treatment with topical 1% tenofovir or vehicle. Under our experimental conditions, in the absence of drug treatment we observed 50% and 60% rectal transmission by HIV-1(JRCSF) and HIV-1(THRO), respectively. Topical tenofovir reduced rectal transmission to 8% (1/12; log rank p = 0.03) for HIV-1(JRCSF) and 0% (0/6; log rank p = 0.02) for HIV-1(THRO). This is the first demonstration that any human T/F HIV-1 rectally infects humanized mice and that transmission of the T/F virus can be efficiently blocked by rectally applied 1% tenofovir. These results obtained in BLT mice, along with recent ex vivo, Phase 1 trial and non-human primate reports, provide a critically important step forward in the development of tenofovir-based rectal microbicides

Business unusual: collective action against bribery in international business

Collective action initiatives in which governments and companies make anti-corruption commitments have proliferated in recent years. This apparently prosocial behavior defies the logic of collective action and, given that bribery often goes undetected and unpunished, is not easily explained by principal-agent theory. Club theory suggests that the answer lies in the institutional design of anti-corruption clubs: collective action can work as long as membership has high entry costs, members receive selective benefits, and compliance is adequately policed. This article contributes to the debate by examining how these conditions manifest in the case of anti-corruption clubs in the realm of international business, with particular focus on the international dimension of many initiatives. This vertical aspect of institutional design creates a richer, more complex set of reputational and material benefits for members, as well as allowing for more credible and consistent monitoring and enforcement

Daily volume, intraday and overnight returns for volatility prediction: profitability or accuracy?

This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative ability of three information sets—daily trading volume, intraday returns and overnight returns—to predict equity volatility. We investigate the extent to which statistical accuracy of one-day-ahead forecasts translates into economic gains for technical traders. Various profitability criteria and utility-based switching fees indicate that the largest gains stem from combining historical daily returns with volume information. Using common statistical loss functions, the largest degree of predictive power is found instead in intraday returns. Our analysis thus reinforces the view that statistical significance does not have a direct mapping onto economic value. As a byproduct, we show that buying the stock when the forecasted volatility is extremely high appears largely profitable, suggesting a strong return-risk relationship in turbulent conditions

Topical microbicides to prevent the transmission of HIV: formulation gaps and challenges

The efforts of the topical microbicide field to identify a safe and effective topical microbicide were realized in July of 2010 with the reporting of the results of the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa 004 trial. In this trial, a 1% tenofovir gel was found to reduce women’s risk for HIV acquisition by 39% compared to placebo. To understand the impact of this trial on future microbicide development, we must view it from the historical perspective of previous phases 2 and 3 clinical trials with detergents and sulfated polyanions. This knowledge and emerging information must then be parlayed into the next steps needed to create a safe, effective, and acceptable topical microbicide. This review will look at the lessons learned from preclinical and clinical development of topical microbicides, focusing on two significant future challenges: (1) topical microbicide formulation safety and (2) the critical role that adherence to product use has in determining safety and efficacy in clinical trials and ultimately commercial viability of the licensed product. In addition to framing these issues within our current understanding of formulation and prevention of HIV acquisition, recent advances in our understanding of the mechanism of HIV transmission and how it informs on future formulation strategies will be briefly discussed

A Mixed Methods and Triangulation Model for Increasing the Accuracy of Adherence and Sexual Behaviour Data: The Microbicides Development Programme

Background: The collection of accurate data on adherence and sexual behaviour is crucial in microbicide (and other HIV-related) research. In the absence of a “gold standard” the collection of such data relies largely on participant self-reporting. After reviewing available methods, this paper describes a mixed method/triangulation model for generating more accurate data on adherence and sexual behaviour in a multi-centre vaginal microbicide clinical trial. In a companion paper some of the results from this model are presented [1]. Methodology/Principal Findings: Data were collected from a random subsample of 725 women (7.7% of the trial population) using structured interviews, coital diaries, in-depth interviews, counting returned gel applicators, focus group discussions, and ethnography. The core of the model was a customised, semi-structured in-depth interview. There were two levels of triangulation: first, discrepancies between data from the questionnaires, diaries, in-depth interviews and applicator returns were identified, discussed with participants and, to a large extent, resolved; second, results from individual participants were related to more general data emerging from the focus group discussions and ethnography. A democratic and equitable collaboration between clinical trialists and qualitative social scientists facilitated the success of the model, as did the preparatory studies preceding the trial. The process revealed some of the underlying assumptions and routinised practices in “clinical trial culture” that are potentially detrimental to the collection of accurate data, as well as some of the shortcomings of large qualitative studies, and pointed to some potential solutions. Conclusions/Significance: The integration of qualitative social science and the use of mixed methods and triangulation in clinical trials are feasible, and can reveal (and resolve) inaccuracies in data on adherence and sensitive behaviours, as well as illuminating aspects of “trial culture” that may also affect data accuracy

An Antiretroviral/Zinc Combination Gel Provides 24 Hours of Complete Protection against Vaginal SHIV Infection in Macaques

Repeated use, coitus-independent microbicide gels that do not contain antiretroviral agents also used as first line HIV therapy are urgently needed to curb HIV spread. Current formulations require high doses (millimolar range) of antiretroviral drugs and typically only provide short-term protection in macaques. We used the macaque model to test the efficacy of a novel combination microbicide gel containing zinc acetate and micromolar doses of the novel non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor MIV-150 for up to 24 h after repeated gel application.Rhesus macaques were vaginally challenged with SHIV-RT up to 24 h after repeated administration of microbicide versus placebo gels. Infection status was determined by measuring virologic and immunologic parameters. Combination microbicide gels containing 14 mM zinc acetate dihydrate and 50 µM MIV-150 afforded full protection (21 of 21 animals) for up to 24 h after 2 weeks of daily application. Partial protection was achieved with the MIV-150 gel (56% of control at 8 h after last application, 11% at 24 h), while the zinc acetate gel afforded more pronounced protection (67% at 8-24 h). Marked protection persisted when the zinc acetate or MIV-150/zinc acetate gels were applied every other day for 4 weeks prior to challenge 24 h after the last gel was administered (11 of 14 protected). More MIV-150 was associated with cervical tissue 8 h after daily dosing of MIV-150/zinc acetate versus MIV-150, while comparable MIV-150 levels were associated with vaginal tissues and at 24 h.A combination MIV-150/zinc acetate gel and a zinc acetate gel provide significant protection against SHIV-RT infection for up to 24 h. This represents a novel advancement, identifying microbicides that do not contain anti-viral agents used to treat HIV infection and which can be used repeatedly and independently of coitus, and underscores the need for future clinical testing of their safety and ability to prevent HIV transmission in humans

Structure Activity Relationship of Dendrimer Microbicides with Dual Action Antiviral Activity

Topical microbicides, used by women to prevent the transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections are urgently required. Dendrimers are highly branched nanoparticles being developed as microbicides. However, the anti-HIV and HSV structure-activity relationship of dendrimers comprising benzyhydryl amide cores and lysine branches, and a comprehensive analysis of their broad-spectrum anti-HIV activity and mechanism of action have not been published.Dendrimers with optimized activity against HIV-1 and HSV-2 were identified with respect to the number of lysine branches (generations) and surface groups. Antiviral activity was determined in cell culture assays. Time-of-addition assays were performed to determine dendrimer mechanism of action. In vivo toxicity and HSV-2 inhibitory activity were evaluated in the mouse HSV-2 susceptibility model. Surface groups imparting the most potent inhibitory activity against HIV-1 and HSV-2 were naphthalene disulfonic acid (DNAA) and 3,5-disulfobenzoic acid exhibiting the greatest anionic charge and hydrophobicity of the seven surface groups tested. Their anti-HIV-1 activity did not appreciably increase beyond a second-generation dendrimer while dendrimers larger than two generations were required for potent anti-HSV-2 activity. Second (SPL7115) and fourth generation (SPL7013) DNAA dendrimers demonstrated broad-spectrum anti-HIV activity. However, SPL7013 was more active against HSV and blocking HIV-1 envelope mediated cell-to-cell fusion. SPL7013 and SPL7115 inhibited viral entry with similar potency against CXCR4-(X4) and CCR5-using (R5) HIV-1 strains. SPL7013 was not toxic and provided at least 12 h protection against HSV-2 in the mouse vagina.Dendrimers can be engineered with optimized potency against HIV and HSV representing a unique platform for the controlled synthesis of chemically defined multivalent agents as viral entry inhibitors. SPL7013 is formulated as VivaGel(R) and is currently in clinical development to provide protection against HIV and HSV. SPL7013 could also be combined with other microbicides

Social media, political uncertainty, and the stock market

This study proposes a new measure of firm-level uncertainty exposure around important political events. More specifically, we construct a degree of (dis)agreement among social media users who jointly mention firms and politicians. We study a sample of over 23 million tweets mentioning both a firm from the S&P 500 composite and ‘Trump’ from October 2016 to May 2017. We then analyze the relationship between the (dis)agreement measure and individual stock features. The results suggest that increased disagreement among such tweets is associated with heightened stock price volatility and trading volume. This link is observed before the US Presidential Inauguration in January 2017 but not afterwards. The finding is confirmed by further robustness checks based on filtered tweets with policy keywords and policy-sensitive industries